Description: The Society of Actuaries has developed and released a health care forecast model to illustrate the potential impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on insurance plan health care costs in the United States. Users of the model may include insurance company actuaries seeking an additional reference point for 2021 cost development, regulatory actuaries seeking additional insights and validation of costs as part of rating submissions for 2021, and insurance purchasers seeking a deeper understanding of the forces driving 2021 health care costs and premiums. The model is not intended as a replacement for existing modeling tools developed by insurers or regulators. Rather, the model’s primary purpose is to illustrate the key outbreak-related forces that are affecting the trajectory of health care costs. In addition the model can provide a common reference point to facilitate dialogue with respect to the regulatory review of 2021 health insurance rate filings.

Description: The heathcare academic literature seems to be saturated with articles on technology. This paper presents summaries of several articles that are intended to be representative, covering a wide range of topics relating to the impact of technology on the healthcare system.

Description: Through the sponsorship of the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, The Society of Actuaries partnered with Wakely to use their health care data to study the effects of COVID-19 on overall health care claims for individuals with a COVID-19 diagnosis. The conclusion of the study is that individuals with COVID-19 claims had significant increases in health care costs leading up to their months of diagnosis, as well as in the months following their diagnosis. These effects were more pronounced for individuals who were hospitalized due to COVID-19 as well as for individuals with prior co-morbidities. Finally, the overall health care costs of these members plateaued at significantly higher levels than their pre-COVID baselines. In fact, all the main membership cohorts experienced claim levels that were at least 20% higher than their pre-COVID starting points.

Description: On March 6, 2023, The Wall Street Journal hosted its Health Forum, a hybrid all-day event. The virtual meeting featured 11 different events. This white paper focuses on those events. The sessions were informative and fast-paced, with each one providing a quick hit of relevant and cutting-edge information around health care.

Description: The SOA’s Health Care Cost Trends Strategic Research Program highlights trends in health care costs and high cost claimants, impacts of population driven risk factors on health care costs and innovative approaches to keeping costs in check.

Description: The last three decades have witnessed an important rise in number of people with diabetes in Asia, especially Type 2 Diabetes. Like no other common condition, numerous innovations are currently entering the healthcare system that will soon have a significant impact on management of the condition. This presentation explores the role played by sensors/wearables, artificial intelligence, new drugs and diabetes apps. We assess the realistic potential of such advancements and give an outlook on medium-term pricing and product development.

Description: A call for essays issued by the SOA Health and Long Term Care Sections on the visions for the future of the U.S. health care system.

Description: The SOA’s research objective is to provide guidance to state exchange officials and administrators, federal officials and administrators, and actuaries assisting states and health plans. The goal of the project is to estimate the morbidity and/or cost for newly insured individuals in the individual market (and to some degree, the small group exchange) relative to the morbidity and/or cost for the current commercially insured population. This analysis will primarily focus on the individual, non-group market. In order to plan for the impact that these currently uninsured individuals will have on the health insurance markets, it will be important to understand their costs relative to the costs for people already enrolled, for whom many health insurers have experience and data.

Description: In this session, Deana Bell, FSA MAAA provides a comprehensive introduction to the Medicare Risk adjustment Program. Deana is a Principal & Consulting Actuary in the Seattel office at Milliman. She has been working with Medicare Advantage throughout her career as an actuary. Her expertise includes actuarial opinions, pricing, rating, reserving, medical underwriting, benchmarking, and risk adjustment projects. IN this session she sheds light on how Medicare Advantage health plans are compensated by the Centers of Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) through risk adjusted revenue. She highlights the significance of risk adjustment in ensuring financial stability for Medicare Advantage plans. Contributors: Deana Bell, FSA MAAA ; David Koenig, FSA, MAAA, John Dawson, FSA, MAAA, Jon Forster, ASA, MAAA

Description: Kevin Pierce, FSA MAAA divesinto the Inflation Reduction Act’s impact on US drug pricing. He discusses two key provisions: Inflation rebates, where pharmaceutical manufacturers must pay rebates to the government if drug prices rise faster than inflation, and drug price negotiation by Medicare, set to commence in 2026 for selected drugs. Contributors: Kevin Pierce, FSA, MAAA, Deana Bell, FSA, MAAA Mitchell Momanyi, FSA, MAAA, Jon Forster, ASA, MAAA